![]() ![]() In order to measure model performance, generally the model output is compared to a measurable parameter and skill scores are computed. It is essential for both model users and developers to understand the limitations and capabilities of these models. Space weather models provide forecast capabilities that greatly enhance satellite and ground-based observations. ![]() The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) coronal model ( Arge & Pizzo, 2000 Arge et al., 2004) coupled with the global heliospheric ENLIL solar-wind model ( Odstrčil et al., 1996 Odstrčil & Pizzo, 1999a, b Odstrčil, 2003 Odstrčil et al., 2004) has been used extensively in space weather operations world-wide. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( ), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint. There is an increase of 1.7 h in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited two-viewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A sidelobe operations (August 2014–December 2015). We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B, and was actually observed (hit event), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4 ± 0.9 h, with a tendency to early prediction error of −4.0 h. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three locations. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in situ interplanetary coronal mass ejection leading edge measurements at Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory- Ahead ( STEREO-A), Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory- Behind ( STEREO-B), and Earth ( Wind and ACE) for simulations completed between March 2010 and December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). CCMC uses the WSA−ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. We present validation results of the WSA−ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC space weather team. As such, it is important to assess its performance. * Corresponding author: Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)−ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation. University of Colorado Boulder, Aerospace Engineering Sciences, Jian 5 ,3, Dusan Odstrcil 3 ,6 and Peter MacNeice 3 Leila Mays 3, Aleksandre Taktakishvili 4 ,3, Lan K. ![]()
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